Want Recommendation on a Monte Carlo Simulation Downside
Good day! I’m engaged on making a monte carlo simulation for a restaurant enlargement case examine. I’ve outlined my Chance Distributions:
# Chance Distributions
A_FT <-rpois(num_sim, 4500) # estimated month-to-month foot visitors
A_Avg <- rlnorm(num_sim, 8, 1.5) # estimated spend per buyer
A_MOC <- rnorm(num_sim, 15000,1000) # estimated month-to-month working prices
A_II <- rtriangle(num_sim, 150000, 200000, 175000) # estimated month-to-month funding
I’ve to calculate the web money circulation for the situation and that is my system.
A_NCF <- c(-sum(A_II), rep(A_Avg*A_FT, 36)- A_MOC * A_FT)
Nevertheless, after I run this in R, my outcomes are actually massive which make me assume this isn’t appropriate. Any recommendation on this is able to be so appreciated.
Right here is the venture data:
1 Introduction You might be working as a enterprise analyst for a preferred cafe chain that’s planning to develop its operations. Your supervisor has requested you to design a Monte Carlo simulation mannequin to guage totally different enlargement methods and decide the optimum one. It’s essential to think about elements comparable to location, estimated income, preliminary funding, and working prices.
2 Goal The target of this project is to make use of Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the dangers and rewards related to varied enlargement methods for the caf´e chain. You’ll consider the efficiency of various methods and decide the perfect one primarily based on web current worth (NPV), payback interval, and return on funding (ROI).
3 Knowledge You’ve gotten been supplied with the next information: 1. A listing of potential places, every with the next data: (a) Estimated preliminary funding (development, tools, and so on.) (b) Estimated month-to-month working prices (lease, utilities, wages, and so on.) (c) Estimated month-to-month foot visitors (variety of potential clients) (d) Estimated common spend per buyer 2. The cafe chain’s required price of return (low cost price) 3. The corporate’s goal payback interval
4 Chance Distributions The next likelihood distributions might be used to mannequin the uncertainty within the information: 1 1. Preliminary funding: Triangular distribution with min, max, and more than likely values supplied for every location 2. Month-to-month working prices: Regular distribution with imply and customary deviation supplied for every location 3. Month-to-month foot visitors: Poisson distribution with imply supplied for every location 4. Common spend per buyer: Lognormal distribution with imply and customary deviation supplied for every location A listing of potential places and information parameters are listed within the Excel file.
5 Duties 1. Familiarize your self with the supplied information and likelihood distributions. 2. Create a Monte Carlo simulation mannequin for every potential location, contemplating the supplied information and likelihood distributions. Calculate the month-to-month income and web money circulation for every location. 3. Calculate the Internet Current Worth (NPV) for every location utilizing the caf´e chain’s required price of return. 4. Decide the payback interval for every location primarily based on the cumulative web money circulation. 5. Calculate the Return on Funding (ROI) for every location after the goal payback interval of three years.
Comment ( 1 )
For which school is this?